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Why Mumbai will never be free from traffic

2004 : Regular commute on the western express highway (which was barely a total of 3-4 lanes) all the way to Seepz, sometimes via Aarey Colony/JVLR.
Chai pe discussions (borrowed phrase) over why are they bothering to build a highway in the middle of the city..why we just cant have a metro from Ghodbundar / Kashimira to atleast Bandra, since we were anyways building the commercial district of Bandra Kurla Complex and the Bandra Terminus.
Anyways Delhi had a metro since the 1990's, and we being the hip and happening Mumbai deserved our own.
That, we all know did not happen.

And, in the meanwhile, atleast I now have good understanding of why something like that or similar will have opposing forces :
  • Lost Fare - Such a move would render thousands of auto fares/taxi fares needless. Think about Rs. 1 to 2 crore lost on a daily basis. In this context, think of the cycle of increasing taxi-auto fares -> increasing taxi/auto permits -> increasing fares -> you get the idea..
  • Auto Rickshaw manufacturing - Generally such a loss in fare would result in a lower number of people entering this profession, resulting in about 5-7% vehicles lesser on the road. That is lost revenue for a total of approximately 7000 (autos + taxis) lost, which is in turn a loss of a similar amount or a little lesser number of loans for the banks. About Rs. 30-40 crore gone.
  • Fuel Consumption - Obviously, without saying, lesser vehicles lead to lesser fuel consumption.. atleast another Rs. 6 lakh on a daily basis lost.
  • Road Construction - what would we do without these guys and all these flyovers zig-zagging..and ah yes the monsoon..that would be sooo boring.
  • Politics - Some of these autos, from what I know are owned by the juniormost level politicos - 5-6 per such politico, used as a dole for the underlings...
  • Rent Seeking - The permit economy of about Rs. 1 lakh per auto for about 3 years and Rs. 1.5 lakh for a cab permit is another lost opportunity.
  • Politics again - Approximately 7-8 lakh adults, including the drivers and their families rely on this profession. 
  • Cars - Seriously, how many of you would drive or bother to purchase a car if I gave you the option to sit and commute comfortably to your office. So with the cars, is the impact on the car companies and obviously is the fuel.
  • Jobs - With the cars lost, obviously, a conservative estimate of another 1000-2000 personal chaffeurs become jobless.
In short, this is a trade off between the comfort of the largely educate middle class + the business class, against the employment of the lower middle class. In short, re-distribution/socialistic policies.

What is wrong/right, I do not know.. but this is definitely an example of what is coming next..
The big debate of employment vs technology or the technology endgame... and how the demographic dividend may not exist.





    Comments

    Anonymous said…
    An interesting experiment in demand, supply and pricing would be -

    1. Find optimum number of vehicles required for city limits, population, commuters

    2. Increase fares of public transportation like auto, cabs.

    3. Increase number of cabs and autos.

    4. Repeat 2 and 3 till visible decrease seen in commuters.

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